- Straight up: 61-14 (17-3 in Week 4)
- Against the spread: 32-43 (9-11 in Week 4)
- Upsets: 4-1 (1-0 in Week 4)
With that in mind, a look at this week’s picks:
Week 5 picks against the spread
Friday, Oct. 1
No. 5 Iowa (-3.5) at Maryland (8 p.m., FS1)
The Terps are off to a stunning 4-0 start under Taulia Tagovailoa, and they won the last home game versus the Hawkeyes in 2014. Iowa, on the other hand, hasn’t given up more than 17 points in a game all year. That over (48.5) is also appealing.
Pick: Iowa wins 31-26 and COVERS the spread.
No. 13 BYU (-8.5) at Utah State (9 p.m., CBSSN)
Jaren Hall (ribs) could return this week, but Baylor Romney showed he could fill in for him against South Florida. This season, the Cougars are 0-2 ATS as a favorite, while the Aggies have been mentioned a few times. Utah State may also be a bit sloppy with the football.
Pick: BYU wins 35-23 and COVERS the spread.
Saturday, Oct. 2
No. 8 Arkansas at No. 2 Georgia (-18.5) (12 p.m., ESPN)
This season, the Bulldogs are 3-1 ATS and have only given up 23 points. The Razorbacks are 4-0 against the spread, with two covers as underdogs. Last season, Georgia trailed Arkansas 7-5 at halftime before blowing the game open. Even if it’s at arm’s length, we believe Arkansas can compete for four quarters.
Pick: Georgia wins 30-13 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 14 Michigan at Wisconsin (-0.5) (12 p.m., FOX)
It’s a pick-em situation, and for good cause. Wisconsin has two losses and has struggled throwing, but their run defense will put Michigan to the test. Since 2001, the Wolverines have not won at Wisconsin. Since 2015, Michigan has a 0-12 S/U record as an underdog under Jim Harbaugh. In a slugfest, they end the streak.
Pick: Michigan wins 23-20 in an UPSET.
Louisville at No. 24 Wake Forest (-6.5) (12:30 p.m.)
The Demon Deacons are rated, but the Cardinals have rebounded well after losing to Ole Miss in the season opener. With another outstanding effort on the road for the Cards, Malik Cunningham makes the difference.
Pick: Louisville wins 34-31 in an UPSET.
No. 7 Cincinnati (-2.5) at No. 9 Notre Dame (2:30 p.m. NBC)
The Bearcats have a chance to win a big game on the road, and Desmond Ridder and Jerome Ford will be a tough matchup for the Irish. The Irish, on the other hand, erupted in the fourth quarter against Wisconsin and will once again be considered an underdog.
Pick: Notre Dame wins 27-24 in an UPSET.
UL-Monroe at No. 16 Coastal Carolina (-34.5) (2:30 p.m., ESPN+)
The Chanticleers will become the Group of 5 darling if the Bearcats lose. Coastal Carolina is 3-1 ATS and has been favored by double digits in every game. In this series, the Warhawks are 3-0 S/U.
Pick: Coastal Carolina wins 48-17 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 12 Ole Miss at No. 1 Alabama (-14.5) (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Ole Miss has an extra week to prepare for the Crimson Tide, so the line hasn’t shifted much. Bryce Young and Matt Corral should have a good time in this shootout. In the CFP era, the Crimson Tide are 9-3 ATS with a rest disadvantage, but we believe a half-point hook is enough to take Ole Miss.
Pick: Alabama wins 44-33 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 3 Oregon (-8.5) at Stanford (3:30 p.m., ABC)
This used to be the Pac-12’s major game. As a result of the Cardinal’s hit-or-miss record, the line has increased two points. Oregon is a single-digit favorite for the first time, and they take advantage with another road win.
Pick: Oregon wins 31-20 and COVERS the spread.
No. 6 Oklahoma (-10.5) at Kansas State (3:30 p.m., FOX)
Oklahoma’s attack has been stuck in neutral for the last two weeks, while the Wildcats have won the last two encounters. K-State is coming off a loss to Oklahoma State, but Chris Klieman’s Wildcats are 6-2 ATS as a home underdog.
Pick: Oklahoma wins 33-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 11 Ohio State (-15.5) at Rutgers (3:30 p.m., BTN)
With 559.3 yards per game, the Buckeyes are second in the FBS, and their defense rebounded against Akron with eight sacks. Under Greg Schiano, Rutgers has improved, but the Scarlet Knights’ closest loss against Ohio State since joining the Big Ten is 22 points. The Buckeyes send a message to the rest of the Big Ten East.
Pick: Ohio State wins 45-17 and COVERS the spread.
No. 10 Florida (-8.5) at Kentucky (6 p.m., ESPN)
Kentucky is 4-0 and will try to upset the Gators for the first time in Lexington since 1986. This is the first single-digit spread for the Gators, who are 1-2 ATS as favorites this season. Late in the game, Florida’s defense comes through, and the Wildcats suffer another heartbreaker at home.
Pick: Florida wins 28-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Louisiana Tech at No. 23 N.C. State (-19.5) (6 p.m., ESPN+)
After upsetting Clemson, N.C. State coach Dave Doeren will have to avoid the hangover game, which will be difficult. By a combined three points, Louisiana Tech fell to Mississippi State and SMU. Take those points into consideration.
Pick: N.C. State wins 30-20 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
Mississippi State at No. 15 Texas A&M (-8.5) (7 p.m., SECN)
Mississippi State has lost two heartbreakers to Memphis and LSU, and now the Bulldogs head to Texas A&M to play an Aggies squad eager to avenge a defeat to Arkansas. Texas A&M has won the last two games by a wide margin, but given the inconsistency of both offenses, this feels like a brawl.
Pick: Texas A&M wins 29-23 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 21 Baylor at No. 19 Oklahoma State (-3.5) (7 p.m., ESPN2)
Unbeaten Big 12 teams face off in prime time. The Bears top the Big 12 in rushing yards per game with 273.3, and they’ll be fired up after losing 42-3 to the Cowboys last year. In a coin-flip game, we’re still betting on the home team. Oklahoma State has won three games by a single point this season. Let’s make it four.
Pick: Oklahoma State wins 30-23 and COVERS the spread.
Indiana at No. 4 Penn State (-10.5) (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Last season, Indiana defeated Penn State in a 36-35 thriller, and no one in Happy Valley is likely to forget it. Indiana is entering a difficult stretch of the schedule, and this isn’t the same club as last year.
Pick: Penn State wins 34-17 and COVERS the spread.
Western Kentucky at No. 17 Michigan State (-9.5) (7:30 p.m., BTN)
With great running back Kenneth Walker III, Michigan State continues to surprise, and this line appears to below. The Hilltoppers are 3-0 against the spread, but their defense allows 224.7 yards per game on the ground. That’s fine by the Spartans.
Pick: Michigan State wins 35-20 and COVERS the spread.
Boston College at No. 25 Clemson (-15.5) (7:30 p.m., ACCN)
The Tigers are 0-4 against the spread, but they are still double-digit favorites over Boston College, which held a double-digit lead over the Tigers at halftime last season. Boston College is undefeated and will enter the game full of confidence. Until Clemson blows someone out, everyone in the ACC believes they have a chance to beat them. We’ll have to wait a week longer.
Pick: Clemson wins 31-24 but FAILS TO COVER the spread.
No. 22 Auburn at LSU (-3.5) (9 p.m., ESPN)
Auburn will face a night game in Death Valley, a venue where they haven’t won since 1999. That’s a lot of baggage to overcome, and LSU has been picking up the pieces since losing to UCLA in Week 2. Who drew out Auburn’s schedule this time?
Pick: LSU wins 27-20 and COVERS the spread.
Arizona State at No. 20 UCLA (-3.5) (10:30 p.m., FS1)
The Bruins have won the last two encounters, and this game might determine the Pac-12 South champion. The Sun Devils, on the other hand, have the best defense in the Pac-12, and Jayden Daniels has learned from his loss to BYU. For this one, stay up late. It will be well worth the effort.
Pick: Arizona State wins 31-30 in an UPSET.
No. 18 Fresno State (-10.5) at Hawaii (11 p.m., CBSSN)
The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS, and Jake Haener is gaining in popularity with each win. Hawaii has 11 turnovers and a hit-or-miss passing approach this season. Fresno State finishes off a memorable week with a late cover.